Why economic recovery is the slowest in Brazilian history?

Manoel Carlos Pires, Bráulio Borges, Gilberto Borça Jr.


Brazilian economic recovery that emerged from the 2014-16 recession is the slowest in history. Current low growth threats future growth reducing labor’s productivity and capital stock, which is widely known as hysteresis effect. Brazil has a large idleness, inflation below the target and both must result in lower interest rate. Monetary stimulus will improve economic activity and create space for fiscal policy and other themes of economic policy debate.


Hysteresis; Monetary policy; Interest rates.


Ball, L. & Tchaidze, R. (2002). The FED and the new economy. American Economic Review, 92(2), 108-114. doi: 10.1257/000282802320189096.

Barbosa, F., Camelo, F. & Joao, I. (2016). A taxa de juros natural e a regra de Taylor: 2003-2015. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 70(4), 399-417. doi: 10.5935/0034-7140.20160021.

Barboza, R. (2019). A década frustrada. Jornal Valor Econômico. Disponível em

BCB - Banco Central Brasil (2019). Relatório de Inflação, 21(2), 1-59, Brasília: Banco Central do Brasil. Disponível em:


Blanchard, O. (2017). Should we get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis? NBER Working Paper, 24057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. doi: 10.3386/w24057.

Blanchard, O. & Summers, L. (1986). Hysteresis and European unemployment problem. In: Fischer, S. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, v.1. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

Borges, B. (2019). Resultado fiscal estrutural brasileiro encerrou 2018 em terreno ligeiramente positivo, pela primeira vez desde 2012. Blog do Ibre. Disponível em

Borça Jr., G., Barboza, R. & Furtado, M. (2019). A recuperação do PIB brasileiro em recessões: uma visão comparativa. Blog do Ibre. Disponível em

Braga, J. & Lara, F. (2019). De onde virá a demanda que justificará a recuperação do investimento? Excedente, Grupo de Economia Política da UFRJ. Disponível em:

Carvalho, C., Nechio, F. & Tristão, T. (2018). Taylor rule estimation by OLS. Federal Reserve Bank of San Franscisco Working Paper, 2018-11, 1-39. doi: 10.24148/wp2018-11.

CODACE (2017). Comitê de Datação de Ciclos Econômicos. FGV: São Paulo. Disponível em


DeLong, B. & Summers, L. (1988). How does macroeconomic policy affect output? Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, Brookings Institution, 2, 433-494.

International Monetary Fund (2019). Article IV Consultation Press Release, Staff Report and statement by the executive director for Brazil, IMF Country Report, 19/242, 1-14, Washington, DC: IMF.

Khan, L. (2010). The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy. Labour Economics, 17(2), 303-316.

Montero, P. (2019). PIB per capita caminha para ter variação zero na década. Valor Econômico, p. A5. Disponível em:

Pastore, A., Pinotti, M., Gazzano, M. & Magalhães, P. (2019). A Depressão Depois da Recessão. Informe Especial A.C. Pastore Associados.

Phelps, E. (1972). Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory. New York: Norton.

Walentin, K. & Westermark, A. (2018). Learning on the job and the cost of business cycle. Sveriges Riskbank Working Paper, 353, Sveriges Riskbank, Estocolmo. Disponível em


Secretaria de Política Econômica – Ministério da Economia (2019). Boletim Resultado Fiscal Estrutural – 2018. Brasília: SPE.

Williams, J. (2013). Lessons from the Financial Crisis for Unconventional Monetary Policy. Panel discussion at the NBER Conference. Disponível em

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33834/bkr.v5i1.204


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2019 Manoel Carlos Pires, Bráulio Borges, Gilberto Borça Jr.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Indexed in


Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.