@article{Kirsten_Morrone_2019, title={External shocks and financial imbalances: an interpretation of the Brazilian crisis}, volume={5}, url={https://www.braziliankeynesianreview.org/BKR/article/view/167}, DOI={10.33834/bkr.v5i1.167}, abstractNote={<p>This paper investigates the causes of the Brazilian recession that began in 2014. If, on the one hand, the conventional diagnosis attributes the crisis to a lack of control of public finances, other interpretations emphasize external shocks and excessive indebtedness of the private sector. The alternative hypothesis is that the deterioration of public accounts is a consequence of the crisis and not its cause. The methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is used to verify the hypothesis of non-causality of Granger between the time series of the balances of the private sector, public sector and current account, from the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB, 2017) for the 2002-2017 period. The results suggest that the balances of the external and private sectors cause in the Granger sense the balance (result) of the public sector.</p>}, number={1}, journal={Brazilian Keynesian Review}, author={Kirsten, Martin Branco and Morrone, Henrique}, year={2019}, month={Sep.}, pages={43-68} }