TY - JOUR AU - Kirsten, Martin Branco AU - Morrone, Henrique PY - 2019/09/21 Y2 - 2024/03/29 TI - External shocks and financial imbalances: an interpretation of the Brazilian crisis JF - Brazilian Keynesian Review JA - BKR VL - 5 IS - 1 SE - Articles DO - 10.33834/bkr.v5i1.167 UR - https://www.braziliankeynesianreview.org/BKR/article/view/167 SP - 43-68 AB - This paper investigates the causes of the Brazilian recession that began in 2014. If, on the one hand, the conventional diagnosis attributes the crisis to a lack of control of public finances, other interpretations emphasize external shocks and excessive indebtedness of the private sector. The alternative hypothesis is that the deterioration of public accounts is a consequence of the crisis and not its cause. The methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is used to verify the hypothesis of non-causality of Granger between the time series of the balances of the private sector, public sector and current account, from the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB, 2017) for the 2002-2017 period. The results suggest that the balances of the external and private sectors cause in the Granger sense the balance (result) of the public sector. ER -