The Brazilian Deindustrialization in the Light of the Structuralist Tradition:
a multisectorial analysis (2000-2018)
Abstract
This paper accomplishes an analysis of the Brazilian sectoral deindustrialization, based on the technological intensity differential, for the period 2000-2018. As theoretical framework the multisectoral studies are adopted, in the field of structuralist tradition, which evaluate the capacity of industrial sectors to promote economic growth in function of its level of technological intensity. By incorporating the contributions of multisectoral studies to the analysis of deindustrialization, this paper contributes to the debate, verifying the heterogeneity of this process between sectors and emphasizing the importance of evaluating the industrial composition. For the calculation of sectoral deindustrialization, input-output matrices are used as database. It is observed that deindustrialization is more accentuated in high-tech sectors, precisely those with greater capacity to promote and sustain economic growth. Moreover, it is concluded that the industrial productive structure is weakened in terms of the capacity to boost economic growth, because it is concentrated in sectors of medium-low technological intensity, while the sectors of medium-high and high technological intensity represent a reduced share of Brazilian industry. In this way, the severity of Brazilian deindustrialization and the importance of evaluating it in a disaggregated way are highlighted to comprehend its impacts over the economic growth of the country.
Downloads
References
ARAUJO, R. A.; LIMA, G. T. A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments constrained growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 31, p. 755-774, 2007.
BONELLI, R.; PESSÔA, S. A. Desindustrialização no Brasil: um resumo da evidência. Texto para discussão. FGV/IBRE, 07-2010, 2010.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C. The Dutch disease and its neutralization: a Ricardian approach. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, v. 28, n. 1, p. 47-71, 2008.
CRAMER, C.; TREGENNA, F. Heterodox Approaches to Industrial Policy and the Implications for Industrial Hubs. Em: A. Oqubay and J. Y. Lin (eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Industrial Hubs and Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2020, cap. 3, p. 40-63.
FELIPE, J.; MEHTA, A.; RHEE, C. Manufacturing matters...but it’s the jobs that count. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 43, p. 139-168, 2019.
FERREIRA, M. J. B. Indústria Aeronáutica Brasileira: as especificidades de um modelo nacional de inserção global. Em: A. C. Diegues, F. Sarti (orgs.). Brasil: Indústria e Desenvolvimento em um cenário de transformação do paradigma tecno-produtivo. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2021, cap. 10, p. 219-239.
GUILHOTO, J. J. M.; SESSO FILHO, U. A. Estimação da matriz insumo-produto a partir de dados preliminares das contas nacionais. Economia Aplicada, v. 9, n. 2, p. 277–299, 2005.
GUILHOTO, J. J. M.; SESSO FILHO, U. A. Estimação da Matriz Insumo-Produto Utilizando Dados Preliminares das Contas Nacionais: Aplicação e Análise de Indicadores Econômicos para o Brasil em 2005. Economia & Tecnologia, v. 6, n. 23, p. 53-62, 2010.
HIRATUKA, C.; SARTI, F. Transformações na estrutura produtiva global, desindustrialização e desenvolvimento industrial no Brasil. Revista de Economia Política, v. 37, n. 1, p. 189-207, 2017.
KALDOR, N. Productivity and Growth in Manufacturing Industry: A Reply. Economica, v. 35, n. 140, p. 385-391, 1968.
KALDOR, N. Capitalism and industrial development: some lessons from Britain's experience. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 1, n. 2, p. 193-204, 1977.
LEONTIEF, W.W. The structure of American economy, 1919–1929: an empirical application of equilibrium analysis. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 1941.
MAGACHO, G. R.; McCOMBIE, J. S. L. A sectoral explanation of per capita income convergence and divergence: estimating Verdoorn’s law for countries at different stages of development. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 42, p. 917-934, 2018.
MAGACHO, G. R.; McCOMBIE, J. S. L. Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach. Metroeconomica, v. 71, p. 633-660, 2020.
MARCONI, N.; ROCHA, M. Taxa de câmbio, comércio exterior e desindustrialização precoce – o caso brasileiro. Economia e Sociedade, v. 21, p. 853-888, 2012.
MILLER, R. E.; BLAIR, P. D. Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. 2ª ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
MORCEIRO, P. C. Desindustrialização na economia brasileira no período 2000-2011: abordagens e indicadores. Cultura Acadêmica, São Paulo, 2012.
MORCEIRO, P. C. Nova Classificação de Intensidade Tecnológica da OCDE e a Posição do Brasil. Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas, 2019.
MORCEIRO, P. C.; GUILHOTO, J. J. M. Desindustrialização setorial e estagnação de longo prazo da manufatura brasileira. Texto para discussão. NEREUS/USP, 01-2019, 2019.
MORCEIRO, P. C.; GUILHOTO, J. J. M. Sectoral deindustrialization and long-run stagnation of Brazilian manufacturing. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, v. 43, n. 2, p. 418-441, 2023.
OREIRO, J. L.; FEIJÓ, C. A. Desindustrialização: conceituação, causas, efeitos e o caso brasileiro. Revista de Economia Política, v. 30, n. 2, p. 219-232, 2010.
PALMA, J. G. Four sources of de-industrialisation and a new concept of the Dutch disease. Em: J. A. Ocampo (ed.). Beyond reforms: Structural dynamics and macroeconomic vulnerability. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press / Banco Mundial, 2005, cap. 3, p. 71-116.
PALMA, J. G. Desindustrialización, desindustrializacion “prematura” y “sindrome holandês”. El Trimestre Económico, v. 86, n. 4, p. 901-966, 2019.
ROMERO, J. P.; McCOMBIE, J. S. L. The Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall’s Law: evidence from 14 developed European countries using product-level data. International Review of Applied Economics, v. 30, n. 3, p. 301-325, 2016a.
ROMERO, J. P.; McCOMBIE, J. S. L. Differences in increasing returns between technological sectors: A panel data investigation using the EU KLEMS database. Journal of Economic Studies, v. 43, n. 5, p. 863-878, 2016b.
SOUZA, K. C. Q. D.; SILVA, G. J. C. D. Taxa de câmbio real e produtividade da indústria brasileira no longo prazo: teoria, modelo e evidências para o período recente. Revista de Economia Política, v. 41, n. 4, p. 657-678, 2021.
THIRLWALL, A. P.; HUSSEIN, M. N. The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries. Oxford Economic Papers, v. 34, n. 3, p. 498-510, 1982.
THIRLWALL, A. P. A Plain Man’s Guide to Kaldor’s Growth Laws. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 5, n. 3, p. 345-358, 1983.
TREGENNA, F. Characterising deindustrialisation: An analysis of changes in manufacturing employment and output internationally. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 33, p. 433-466, 2009.
TREGENNA, F. Deindustrialisation: An issue for both developed and developing countries. Em: J. Weiss e M. Tribe (eds.). Routledge Handbook of Industry and Development. Londres: Routledge, 2016, cap. 6, p. 97-116.
TREGENNA, F.; ANDREONI, A. Deindustrialisation reconsidered: Structural shifts and sectoral heterogeneity. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Working Paper Series (IIPP WP 2020-06), 2020.
VERGNHANINI, R. O debate sobre a mudança estrutural da economia brasileira nos anos 2000. Anais do VI Encontro Internacional da Associação Keynesiana Brasileira, 2013.
Copyright (c) 2025 João Guilherme Marques Augusto Monteiro, Roberto Alexandre Zanchetta Borghi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
- Authors keep copyrights and concede to the Journal the right to the first publication, with the paper simultaneously licenced under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License which allows recognised author and journal work sharing.
- Authors are authorized to assume additional contracts separately, for non-exclusive versions of the paper published in this journal (e.g.: publish in an instituional repository or as a book chapter) with the recogntion of authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are allowed (and are estimulated) to publish and distribute their work online (e.g.: in institutional repositories or at their personal websites) at any point before or during the editorial process, once this may generate productive alterations on the paper, as well as increse the factor of impact and quotation of the published paper (please, see Free Access Effect)
