Enhancing Industry-Modern Services Integration via Competitive Real Exchange Rates

Authors

  • Wallace Marcelino Pereira UFMG
  • Fabrício José Missio
  • Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Jr

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33834/bkr.v12i1.406

Keywords:

Manufacturing, Services, Real Exchange Rate, Economic Growth, Increasing Returns to Scale

Abstract

This article discusses theoretically the role of the Real Exchange Rate (RER) on the integration of manufacturing and modern services sectors. It explains how deindustrialization has elevated the significance of modern services, which are critical for productivity and innovation. The symbiotic relationship between both sectors is a vital force that induces pro-growth structural economic change. We demonstrate how competitive RER encourages structural adjustments and investments, promoting interaction between the manufacturing and services sectors, particularly in developing economies, thereby enhancing global competitiveness. In a two-cycle process, a competitive RER initially boosts profitability and external competitiveness, leading to increased automation and collaboration with modern services. This interaction catalyzes "amplified dynamic increasing returns to scale," driven by shared innovations. Over time, as sectors reap profits, they deepen their integration, improve products, and broaden market access. Consequently, the RER fosters a symbiotic relationship that is essential for sustainable economic development and competitiveness in international trade.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Alfaro, L., Cuñat, A., Fadinger, H., & Liu, Y. (2018). The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity: Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Hysteresis (No. w24633). National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI: 10.3386/w24633.

Alimi, N. (2025). Real exchange rate changes and employment in emerging economies: Sectorial analysis. The Japanese Political Economy, 1-19. DOI: 10.1080/2329194X.2025.2469262

Arbache, J. (2014) Serviços e Competitividade Industrial no Brasil, Confederação Nacional da Indústria, Brasília.

Arend, M. (2015). A industrialização do Brasil ante a nova divisão internacional do trabalho. In A. Biancarelli, A. Calixtre, & M. Cintra (Orgs.), Presente e futuro do desenvolvimento brasileiro. IPEA.

Ariu, A., Breinlich, H., Corcos, G., & Mion, G. (2019). The interconnections between services and goods trade at the firm-level. Journal of International Economics, 116, 173–188. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.10.005

Ark, B. V., Inklaar, R., & McGuckin, R. H. (2003). ICT and Productivity in Europe and the United States (No. 200311). University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research. DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/49.3.295

Ascani, A., & Iammarino, S. (2018). Multinational enterprises, service outsourcing and regional structural change. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 42(6), 1585–1611. DOI: 10.1093/cje/bey036

Baggs, J., Beaulieu, E., & Fung, L. (2010). Are service firms affected by exchange rate movements? Review of Income and Wealth, 56, S156–S176. DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00389.x

Balassa, B. (1964). The purchasing-power parity doctrine: a reappraisal. Journal of Political Economy, 72(6), 584–596. DOI: 10.1086/258965

Barreto, L., Amaral, A., & Pereira, T. (2017). Manufacturing 4.0 implications in logistics: an overview. Procedia Manufacturing, 13, 1245–1252. DOI: 10.1016/j.promfg.2017.09.045

Baumol, W. J. (1967). Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review, 57(3), 415–426. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1812111

Bell, M., & Pavitt, K. (1993). Accumulating technology captivity in developing countries. Industrial and Cooperative Change, 2(2), 35–44. DOI: 10.1093/wber/6.suppl_1.257

Blecker, R. (2021). New advances and controversies in the framework of balance-of-payments-constrained growth. Journal of Economic Surveys, special issue, pp. 1-39. DOI: 10.1111/joes.12463

Browning, H. L., & Singelmann, J. (1978). The transformation of the US labor force: the interaction of industry and occupation. Politics & society, 8(3-4), 481-509. DOI: 10.1177/003232927800800306

Cadestin, C., & Miroudot, S. (2020). Services exported together with goods. OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 236, OECD Publishing, Paris, DOI: 10.1787/275e520a-en.

Cainelli, G., & Mazzanti, M. (2013). Environmental innovations in services: Manufacturing services integration and policy transmissions. Research Policy, 42(9), 1595–1604. DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2013.05.010

Castellacci, F. (2008). Technological paradigms, regimes and trajectories: Manufacturing and service industries in a new taxonomy of sectoral patterns of innovation. Research Policy, 37(6–7), 978–994. DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2008.03.011

Clark, C. (1967). The Conditions of Economic Progress. London: MacMillan.

Comin, D., Lashkari, D., & Mestieri, M. (2021). Structural change with long‐run income and price effects. Econometrica, 89(1), 311-374 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA16317

Dao, M. C., Minoiu, M. C., & Ostry, M. J. D. (2017). Corporate Investment and the Real Exchange Rate. International Monetary Fund. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103437

Dasgupta, S., & Singh, A. (2006). Manufacturing, services and premature deindustrialization in developing countries: A Kaldorian analysis (No. 2006/49). Research Paper, UNU-WIDER, United Nations University (UNU). DOI: 10.1057/9780230801462_23

Demir, F., and Razmi, A. (2021). The real exchange rate and development theory, evidence, issues and challenges. Journal of Economic Surveys, 0, pp. 1-43. DOI: 10.1111/joes.12418

Dhasmana, A. (2015). Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access. International Economics, 143, 48–69. DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2015.04.006

Di Berardino, C., & Onesti, G. (2018). The two-way integration between manufacturing and services. The Service Industries Journal, 40(5–6), 337–357. DOI: 10.1080/02642069.2018.1438415

Di Meglio, G., Gallego, J., Maroto, A., & Savona, M. (2018). Services in developing economies: the deindustrialization debate in perspective. Development and Change, 49(6), 1495–1525. DOI:10.1111/dech.12444

Di Meglio, G., Gallego, J. (2022). Disentangling services in developing regions: A test of Kaldor's first and second laws. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 60, 221-229. DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.11.007

Dominiak, J. (2018). Modern services: terminological considerations and the characteristic features of their role in socio-economic development. DOI: 10.2478/quageo-2018-0020

Dunning, J. H. (1989). Multinational enterprises and the growth of services: some conceptual and theoretical issues. The Service Industries Journal, 9(1), 5–39. DOI: 10.1080/02642068900000002

Eichengreen, B., & Gupta, P. (2013). The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different? The World Bank.

Eichengreen, B., & Gupta, P. (2013a): The two waves of service sector growth. NBER. Working Paper, no. 14968. DOI: 10.1093/oep/gpr059

Engelbrecht, H. J. (1992). New perspectives on intersectorial relationships between manufacturing and services. Economics of Planning, 25(2), 165–178. DOI: 10.1007/BF00373065

Frenkel, R., and Ros, J. (2006). Unemployment and the real exchange rate in latin america. World Development, 34(4), pp. 631-646. DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.09.007

Fuchs, V. R. (1965). The growing importance of the service industries. The Journal of Business, 38(4), 344–373. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2351716

Gabriel, L. F., & Missio, F. J. (2018). Real exchange rate and economic complexity in a North-South structuralist BoPG model. PSL Quarterly Review, 71(287), 439–465. DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_71.287_4

Gabriel, L. F., Ribeiro, L. C. D. S., Jayme Jr, F. G., & Oreiro, J. L. (2020). Manufacturing, economic growth, and real exchange rate: Empirical evidence in panel data and input-output multipliers. PSL Quarterly Review, 73(292), 51–75. DOI: doi:10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_3

Gallego, J., & Maroto, A. (2015). The specialization in knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) across Europe: Permanent co-localization to debate. Regional Studies, 49(4), 644–664. DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2013.799762

Giovanini, A., & Arend, M. (2017). Contribution of services to economic growth: Kaldor’s fifth law. RAM. Revista de Administração Mackenzie, 18(4), 190–213. DOI: 10.1590/1678-69712017/administracao.v18n4p190-213

Giovanini, A., & Arend, M. (2019). Simbiose entre indústria e serviços intermediários: a mudança na dinâmica setorial contemporânea brasileira. Revista de Economia, 39(68). DOI: 10.5380/re.v39i68.61145

Giovanini, A., Pereira, W. M., & Saath, K. C. D. O. (2020). Intermediate services’ impact on capital goods production. Nova Economia, 30(1), 203–230. DOI: 10.1590/0103-6351/4572

Goda, T., Torres García, A., & Larrahondo, C. (2024). Real exchange rates and manufacturing exports in emerging economies: the role of sectoral heterogeneity and product complexity. Review of World Economics, 160(3), 1057-1082. DOI: 10.1007/s10290-023-00523-3

Guzman, M., Ocampo, J. A., & Stiglitz, J. E. (2018). Real exchange rate policies for economic development. World Development, 110, 51–62. DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.017

Habib, M. M., Mileva, E., & Stracca, L. (2017). The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73, 386–398. DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.014

Hauknes, J. (1998). Services in innovation–Innovation in services (No. 199813). The STEP Group, Studies in technology, innovation and economic policy.

Hertog, P. D. (2000) Knowledge-intensive business services as co-producers of innovation. International Journal of Innovation Management, 4(4), 491–528. DOI: 10.1142/S136391960000024X

Hunegnaw, F. B. (2017). Real exchange rate and manufacturing export competitiveness in Eastern Africa. Journal of Economic Integration, 32 (4): 891–912. DOI: 10. 1 1 130/jei.201 7.32.

Iasco-Pereira, H. C., Libânio, G., & Missio, F. (2024). The real exchange rate and industrial investment: new evidence for Brazil. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 48(4), 741-766. DOI: 10.1093/cje/beae020

Karaomerioglu, D. C., & Carlaaon, B. (1999). Manufacturing in decline? A matter of definition. Economy, Innovation, New Technology, 8, 175–196. DOI: 10.1080/10438599900000008

Kon, A. (2006). O comércio internacional da indústria de serviços: os impactos no desenvolvimento de países da América. Brazilian Journal of Latin American Studies, 5(9), 09-47. DOI: 10.11606/issn.1676-6288.prolam.2006.81806

Las Casas, A. L. (1991). Marketing de serviços. Editora Atlas.

Leon-Ledesma, M., & Moro, A. (2020). The rise of services and balanced growth in theory and data. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(4), 109-46. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180373

Levy-Yeyati, E. & Sturzenegger, F. (2009) Fear of appreciation: exchange rate policy as a development strategy. In Hammond, G., Kanbur, R., & Prasad, E. (Eds.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets. Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 69–94. DOI: 10.4337/9781848449190.00010

Lima, G. T., & Porcile, G. (2013). Economic growth and income distribution with heterogeneous preferences on the real exchange rate. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 35(4), 651–674. DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477350407

Machado, A., Arbache, J., & Moreira, R. (2015). Classificações das atividades de serviços (Nota técnica). Economia de Serviços. Available in: https://economiadeservicos.com/wpcontent/uploads/2015/09/NotaT%C3%A9cnica-Classifica%C3%A7%C3%B5es.pdf

Mahalik, M. K., & Pal, S. (2024). Factors Affecting Traditional and Modern Services Imports in an Emerging Economy: The Role of Real Exchange Rate and Remittances Inflows. The Indian Economic Journal, 0(0). DOI: 10.1177/00194662241265485

Marshall, J. N. Services and Uneven Development. New York: Oxford University Press, 1988.

Mazorodze, B. T., & Tewari, D. D. (2018). Real exchange rate undervaluation and sectoral growth in South Africa. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 4(4), 462–476. DOI: 10.1108/AJEMS-06-2017-0132

Miles, I. (2008). Patterns of innovation in service industries. IBM Systems Journal, 47(1), 115. DOI: 10.1147/sj.471.0115

Miozzo, M., & Soete, L. (2001). Internationalization of services: a technological perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 67(2-3), 159-185. DOI: 10.1016/S0040-1625(00)00091-3

Mishra, Saurabh; Lundstrom, Susanna; Anand, Rahul. 2011. Service Export Sophistication and Economic Growth. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5606. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3372

Missio, F., Jayme Jr., F. G. (2012). Structural heterogeneity and endogeneity of elasticities on the balance of payments constrained growth model. In: Souziakis, E. & Cerqueira, P. (Eds.). Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (vol. 1), first ed. London: Palgrave, pp. 239–267. DOI: 10.1057/9781137023957_10

Missio, F. J., Jayme Jr, F. G., & Conceição, O. A. (2015). O problema das elasticidades nos modelos de crescimento com restrição externa: Contribuições ao debate. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 45(2), 317–346. DOI: 10.1590/0101-4161201545233ffo

Nassif, A., Feijó, C. A., & Araújo, E. (2017). A structuralist-Keynesian model for determining the optimum real exchange rate for Brazil’s economic development process: 1999–2015. CEPAL Review. DOI: 10.18356/f7f73b44-en

Nusbaumer, J. (1984). Les services: Nouvelle donne de l’économie. Economica.

Palma, J. G. (2005). Quatro fontes de desindustrialização e um novo conceito de doença holandesa. In: Conferência de industrialização, desindustrialização e desenvolvimento. Centro Cultural da Fiesp.

Panda, AK & Nanda, S 2019, 'The nexus between exchange rate and long-term investment in Indian manufacturing industry', Management Research Review, 42, 174-198. DOI: 10.1108/MRR-01-2018-0024

Park, S. H. (1994). Intersectoral relationships between manufacturing and services: new evidence from selected Pacific Basin countries. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 10 (3). 245-263. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25770495

Pattichis, C. (2012). Exchange rate effects on trade in services. Journal of Economic Studies, 39(6), 697–708. DOI: 10.1108/01443581211274629

Pereira, W., Missio, F., & Jayme Jr, F. (2024). Structural Change in the 21st Century: The Role of the Modern Services Sector in the Economic Development Strategy. Review of Political Economy, 1-25. DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2024.2342431

Pereira, W. M., Missio, F. J., & Jayme Jr, F. G. (2025). Modern services, real exchange rate and economic growth. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 45(1), e253562. DOI: 10.1590/0101-31572025-3562

Porcile, G., Spinola, D., & Yajima, G. (2020). Patterns of Growth in Structuralist Models: The Role of the Real Exchange Rate and Industrial Policy (No. 2020-027). United Nations University – Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

OECD (2000). The Service Economy, OECD Publishing, Paris, DOI: 10.1787/9789264182516-en.

OECD (2005), “Growth in Services - Fostering Employment, Productivity and Innovation”, OECD Digital Economy Papers, No. 94, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: 10.1787/232370436752

Rapetti, M. (2016). The real exchange rate and economic growth: some observations on the possible channels. In: Damill, M., Rapetti, M., & Rozenwurcel, G. (Eds.), Macroeconomics and Development. DOI: 10.7312/dami17508-014

Rapetti M. (2020). The real exchange rate and economic growth: A survey. Journal of Globalization and Development, 11(1), 1–054. DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2019-0024

Razmi, A., Rapetti, M., & Skott, P. (2012). The real exchange rate and economic development. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(2), 151–169. DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2012.01.002

Roach, S. S. (1988). Technology and the services sector: The hidden competitive challenge. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 34(4), 387–403. DOI: 10.1016/0040-1625(88)90006-6

Rodrik, D. (2008). The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2008(2), 365–412. DOI: 10.1353/eca.0.0020.

Rodrik, D. (2016). Premature deindustrialization. Journal of Economic Growth, 21(1), 1–33. DOI: 10.1007/s10887-015-9122-3

Rodrigues, R. L. (2024) Ensaios sobre Serviços e Crescimento Econômico. 2024. 131f. Tese (Doutorado) Curso de Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Uberlândia.

Rowthorn, R. E., & Wells, J. R. (1987), De-industrialization and Foreign Trade. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Rowthorn, R., & Ramaswamy, R. (1997). Deindustrialization: Its Causes and Implications (Vol. 10). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Rowthorn, R., & Ramaswamy, R. (1999). Growth, trade, e deindustrialization. IMF Staff papers, 46 (1), 18-41. Sahoo, M., Babu, M. S., & Dash, U. (2019). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate movements on traditional and modern services exports: Evidence from a large emerging economy. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 28(4), 508–531. DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2018.1561744

Samuelson, P. A. (1964). Theoretical notes on trade problems. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (2): 145–154. DOI: 10.2307/1928178

Silvestro, R., Fitzgerald, L., & Johnston, R. (1992). Towards a classification of service processes. International Journal of Service Industry Management, 3(3), 62–75. DOI: 10.1108/09564239210015175

Tregenna, F. (2009). Characterising deindustrialisation: An analysis of changes in manufacturing employment and output internationally. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(3), 433–466. DOI: 10.1093/cje/ben032

Tregenna, F. (2016). Deindustrialisation and premature deindustrialisation. In Ghosh, J., Kattel, R., Reinert, E., (Eds.), Elgar handbook of alternative theories of economic development, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. DOI: 10.4337/9781782544685.00046

Unctad. (2017). The role of the services economy and trade in structural transformation and inclusive development. Geneva: Trade and Development Board.

Unctad. (2022). World Investment Report 2022: International tax reforms and sustainable investment. United Nations.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division. (2002). International standard industrial classification of all economic activities: ISIC Rev. 3.1 (Draft ESA/STAT/SER.M/4/Rev.3.1, updated February 21, 2002). United Nations. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/doc02/isic.pdf

Vaz, P., and Baer, W. (2014). Real exchange rate and manufacturing growth in Latin America. Latin American Economic Review, 24(2), pp. 1-17. DOI: 10.1007/s40503-014-0002-6

Downloads

Published

2026-06-26

How to Cite

Pereira, W. M., Missio, F. J., & Jayme Jr, F. G. . (2026). Enhancing Industry-Modern Services Integration via Competitive Real Exchange Rates. Brazilian Keynesian Review, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.33834/bkr.v12i1.406